The Los Angeles Times followed up the California State Supreme Court gay marriage coup with a poll to discover how state residents feel about the decision and a possible constitutional amendment to overturn it. As Mollie at GetReligion notes, the reporting on the poll is a bit, ah, slanted:
The Los Angeles Times and KTLA conducted a poll of Californians to determine their support for a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage and their feelings about the state Supreme Court’s decision allowing same-sex marriage.
According to the headline in the print edition, “Californians slimly reject gay marriage.” The Times website’s front page says, “Californians reject gay marriage by a bit.”
The punch line is in the fourth paragraph of the Times story, which says:
Either way, the poll suggests the outcome of the proposed amendment is far from certain. Overall, it was leading 54% to 35% among registered voters.
I was a political science major in college, and was always taught that a “landslide” was defined by a candidate or referendum being supported by 55% of those voting. That means that as things now stand, the amendment would only have to capture a small portion of the 11% undecided to qualify as a landslide. And consider this from the Baptist Press, which Mollie notes in a follow-up post:
Although 54 percent is a slippage in support for traditional marriage since 2000 — when a law banning “gay marriage” passed 61-39 percent — marriage amendments typically do better at the ballot than they do in polling. For example, a Wisconsin amendment in 2006 polled anywhere from 48 to 51 percent in pre-election polls but passed 59-41 percent, and an Oregon amendment in 2004 polled around 50 percent but passed 56-44 percent.
So, in what universe is this a “slim” margin in which Californians favor the amendment by “a bit”? Must be the world of the mainstream media, where according to the Pew Research Trust 88% of the denizens support same sex marriage, but where math skills–and for some, honesty–are apparently not necessary to the job.
(Hat tip: commenter Words Matter at T19.)
May 28, 2008 at 6:02 pm
I agree that the story on this poll was rather slanted. It may, however, derive from the uncertainty of the accuracy of this poll. Unlike every other poll in the nation, this poll showed men more supported of gay marriage than women, and middle-aged folks more supported than the college-aged. This, of course, is extremely suspicious.
The latest field poll out of California has shown the exact opposite of this one. The sample was much larger for this more recent poll, and the margin of error is less. It concluded that 51% of Californians support same-sex marriage.
http://www.sacbee.com/111/story/970055.html
May 28, 2008 at 6:02 pm
supported=supportive