The Research Services unit of the PCUSA has published a look at statistical trends in the denomination since it was formed through merger in 1983. The Presbyterian News Service offers the following regarding the book and its information:
Released this week, Comparative Statistics 2008 features an introductory essay, “The Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) at 25,” by Jack Marcum, coordinator of research services for the General Assembly Mission Council.
Marcum’s analysis gives clear markers for many of the related issues of decline that have faced the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) since reunion:
- Membership (from 3,131,228 to 2,140,165, a loss of 31.6 percent or an average of 1.3 percent per year);
- Baptisms (child baptisms declined by 48.9 percent and adult baptisms by 63.0 percent);
- Congregations (from 11,662 in 1983 to 10,751 in 2008, a total decline of 7.8 percent, or an annual average of 0.3 percent);
- New church developments (a “ragged decline” ranging from a high of 45 in 1992 to a low of 16 in 1999, with 20 in 2008);
- Worship attendance (from a weekly estimated 1,360,000 in 1990 to 1,090,000 today, down 19.7 percent); and
- Active ministers (declined by 11.7 percent, while the number of retired ministers has more than doubled).
At the same time, several areas of growth can also be traced:
- Attendance as a percentage of membership (from 47.6 percent to 51 percent);
- Women in ministry (a fourfold increase, from 1,010 in 1983 to 4,253 in 2008);
- Asian membership (from 57,517 in 1999 to 69,912 in 2008);
- Hispanic membership (from 27,800 in 1999 to 29,699 in 2008);
- and Financial giving (on a per member basis, adjusted for inflation, from $677 per year to $1,109 per year.)
There are undoubtedly a variety of theological, cultural, and demographic factors involved in this picture of decline. Without survey work being done among those who have left, whether for other denominations or through inactivity, it’s impossible to say what is the most important. Sounds like a worthy project for a researcher in religious trends.
(By the way, even the items referred to as “areas of growth” should not really be of any solace: the jump in the number of women ministers is not a sign of vitality in itself; the Asian and Hispanic figures are really pathetic compared to the increases in the size of those groups in the general population; and the attendance percentage and giving figures are primarily a sign that the PCUSA has been able to keep a higher percentage of committed members as opposed to the less committed, which is certainly good, but the relatively small increases indicate that many committed members have left or died as well, and aren’t being replaced very well.)
August 24, 2009 at 11:49 am
Actually that work has already been done. There have been several studies examining the factors influencing the decline of mainline numbers. The results indicate that ~70% of membership decline is due to demographic factors such as the early adoption of birth control in the mainline back in the 60′s.
From the Associated Baptist Press, hardly a bastion of liberal spin:
http://www.abpnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=730&Itemid=118
The 2001 ARIS survey is also instructive if you’ve never read it. (It should be available online somewhere.)
Another important trend is the reduction in participation in public groups across the board. People are much less likely today to belong to the Lion’s Club, the Rotary, the local Bowling League, etc., none of which can be explained by theological factors.
August 24, 2009 at 12:45 pm
The problem with stuff like this is that it’s never thought all the way through. It’s simply inadequate to cite demography in a vacuum as a reason for decline. Acceptance of contraception and other forms of family planning is not devoid of theological overtones – at all. Anemic church planting efforts, baptisms, and worship attendance all reflect certain theological commitments (or the instability of such commitments when compared with other secular commitments). And it ought to go without saying that the extent to which church’s membership/attendance characteristics mirror those of non-church groups is a telling statement about how the church might be becoming ‘of the world’, not merely in the world, which is, at root, a theological posture.
The problem is that evangelicals are just as guilty as liberals on this – it just manifests itself differently. We often think that in contrast to the waning of the mainline, we’ll be okay as long as we uphold theological orthodoxy. Not so. We are ‘of the world’ too, and we aren’t reckoning with it anymore than liberals are. When arguably the most prominent figure in evangelical circles is no longer a preacher like Billy Graham, but a shrink like Dobson, that tells us all we need to know about how the evangelical movement has morphed along cultural lines and adopted cultural authority points, and why we’re not growing much. Like the liberals, I fear evangelicals are too afraid to think things all the way through, and settling for answers that are entirely too convenient.
August 24, 2009 at 12:51 pm
I’m curious about the “attendance as a percentage of membership” figure. How is “member” defined? What does one have to do to become a member, as supposed to someone who just shows up Sunday morning? Can someone who has been a regular attender and active participant in church life still not be a member?
This is a foreign concept to an Anglican.
August 24, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Good question, Kate. In the PC(USA), becoming an “active member” of the church is by profession of faith, reaffirmation of faith in Jesus Christ, or transfer of certificate from some other church (as per our Form of Government). Becoming a faithful member, the Form of Government says, involves being “involved responsibly in the ministry of his Church. Such involvement includes: 1. proclaiming the good news, 2. taking part in the common life and worship of a particular church, 3. praying and studying Scripture and the faith of the Christian Church, 4. supporting the work of the church through the giving of money, time, and talents, 5. participating in the governing responsibilities of the church, 6. demonstrating a new quality of life within and through the church, 7. responding to God’s activity in the world through service to others, 8. living responsibly in the personal, family, vocational, political, cultural, and social relationships of life, 9. working in the world for peace, justice, freedom, and human fulfillment.”
That’s a lot of stuff to agree to, and so there are plenty of people who don’t actually take the leap into membership. Individual churches decide how to prepare someone for membership; some do a two-hour class, others do a semester-long class. In general, I think we in the PC(USA) usually err on the side of “too short,” but then again, the early church had catechumen go through three years of training.
But more directly to your point, membership usually just means you’ve taken a short class, gone before the church’s elders, and made a statement of faith, followed by a statement of faith in front of the church and baptism (if it has not already occurred). Truth be told, many churches have members on the rolls for years who show up once a quarter, if that.
August 24, 2009 at 1:20 pm
” It’s simply inadequate to cite demography in a vacuum as a reason for decline.”
Indeed. There are a number of interrelated reasons for the decline in membership, though the reason with the greatest impact is demographics. However, I agree with you that just as it isn’t entirely about demographics, neither is it all about theology. Such simplistic answers will help neither the mainline nor the conservative churches that are about to experience the same decline, whether they care to admit it or not.
“Can someone who has been a regular attender and active participant in church life still not be a member?”
Yes. In the PCUSA, one becomes a member of a local church through one of three methods: baptism, letter of transfer (for people who were baptized in one church and want to join another), and reaffirmation of faith (for people who have been baptized, but were not members of a church previously.) These routes are similar in several other reformed denominations as well.
August 25, 2009 at 7:52 am
Just as an example per membership requirements in the PC(USA) I have served and/or been a member in several PC(USA) churches (and been in involved in dozens more) where according to the by-laws of the church all one had to do to keep active membership was tithe once per calender year or attend once per calender year.
August 25, 2009 at 5:23 pm
For all the faults of the PCUSA the one area where their performance is top notch is the gathering and reporting of statistics. Jack Marcum has done a fabulous job over the many years collecting the data.
Frankly, I am surprised the powers-that-be in the PCUSA do not eliminate the statistics department in the PCUSA as the numbers have been very negative for the past 50 years.
But compared to their mainline counterparts and compared to non-mainline denominations, the data on church membership and finances and surveys is top-notch at the PCUSA.
That being said, I left the PCUSA some years ago as the numbers collection and reporting was not sufficient to keep me part of an organization that had run amuck in forgetting that job one is to go forth and make disciples—-